We called the Super Bowl back in August and I reaffirmed finale two weeks ago. The interim meant fawning over the delectable, high scoring, hate-free matchup in front of us, an outpouring of legacy love for Indianapolis Colts quarterback, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo ending one last 2009 campaign game with a game-clinching interception in an otherwise meaningless Pro Bowl. Also prop bets.
Alas, it's time for another ATG decision. I'll cut to the quick. The pick is New Orleans, 35-31. Here's why:
1. Every champion needs a stinker loss
a. Lost during Indianapolis' forfeited pursuit of a perfect season were an alarming number of close calls and last minute Manning drives. The Colts let the Jacksonville Jaguars score 31 points and spotted the Houston Texans a 17-point cushion. There's heroism and then there's bailing your little brother out of jail in the early morning for disorderly conduct. Human nature stresses that champions -- and just look to 42 of the last 43 NFL seasons -- must experience an uncomfortable, revealing defeat. A trap game for humility, to learn from.
b. Even the '72 Dolphins, the Super Bowl era's only undefeated champion, spring-boarded their run following a humiliating 24-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl VI.
c. New Orleans, coincidentally, was down 24-3 to the Miami Dolphins before rallying in Miami (site of Sunday's game) to win back on October 17. This is of no consequence to this particular argument, but it's a fun fact.
d. Thus, New Orleans looked flat and inflated in primetime against the Cowboys, blew an embarrassing game to a hapless division foe at home (Tampa Bay, week 16). The bandwagon lost steam, they looked...exposed.
e. Following an end run of stink bomb losses, the Saints rallied and destroyed the Arizona Cardinals to open up their postseason campaign, 45-17.
2. The best defense against Peyton Manning is a good offense
a. The consensus for playing Manning's perfect scheme (dude's been in the same system, with the same coordinator, since 1998, an unreal tenure given NFL's flimsy job market) is to come up with two to three blitz packages you save for the fourth quarter, throw pressure at him early, disrupt the timing with his weapons.
b. This strategy was implemented by Indy's previous playoff opponents, to fair success. The Ravens held Indy to under 300 yards of total offense, the Jets took an early 17-6 lead.
c. However, Peyton Manning will figure out what you're throwing at him and eventually score at will. It's a given. Unfortunately for New York and Baltimore, they couldn't match momentum with touchdowns.
d. In addition to leading the NFL in forced turnovers and counting on the health of cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, the Saints defense has one remarkable, overlooked edge: the NFL's top statistical offense has their back. That's 403 yards a game, 510 points, 64 touchdowns for New Orleans this season. Tops across three key categories.
e. As a corollary, much has been made of Peyton Manning's cerebral approach. It's true: he has an enormous forehead, but lest we forget the equally brainy tendencies of overachiever, Drew Brees, and guru Saints head coach/offensive whiz kid, Sean Payton. Two heads are better than one.
3. Personnel
a. This game will be about points, schemes, who scores last. Here, in a one game, winner-take-all format, I love what the Saints can do. More options, more weapons.
b. They have a more versatile, explosive backfield in Reggie Bush (a game-changing flex player you can plug in anywhere - the return game, slot receiver, an occasional Wildcat formation, reverses) and Pierre Thomas (a durable, steady, quick, traditional touchdown machine that recalls the steady hands of vertical runners like Terrell Davis). They have the luxury of a clock-controlling running game. Indy has neither talent as explosive, hasn't developed or committed to the running game ever and if they find themselves needing a running attack to, say, keep a relentless Saints offense off the field, the Super Bowl isn't the best time to rely on this facet of the game.
c. The Saints have better deep threat, big play receivers. They'll stretch the field early, loosen up Indy's reliable, bland cover 2 secondary which opens up the middle of the field for all sorts of zany slants, curls, Reggie Bush screens. The big play aces (in effect three stretching, burning playmakers in Colston, Meachem, Henderson) are the agents of chaos and linchpins for this mechanical juggernaut.
d. If these Saints were meant to be stopped, the superior, relentless Vikings pass rush would have done so two weeks ago. In the NFC Championship, Minnesota statistically crushed New Orleans in passing yards, rushing yards, time of possession, completions, but all of a sudden it's the fourth quarter and it's a 28-28 tie. I haven't seen a more opportunistic and versatile offensive unit since the '99 Rams.
4. Intangibles
a. First and foremost, there's no question New Orleans is the healthier team going into the Super Bowl. Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney is a sharp terror on the outside because of his footwork and hustle and how quickly he gets around tackles, at quarterbacks. His ankle renders him so ineffective and sluggish that Vegas had to go and move the game line from 5 ½ to 5.
b. Freeney lines up on the right side, the Saints love to run to the right side and score most of their rushing touchdowns to the right.
c. And how about common opponents? These would be the Dolphins, Patriots, Bills and Jets. Let's take a look:
- New Orleans outscored them a combined 137-68, fielded a perfect 4-0 record.
- Indianapolis (not counting the forfeited, ugly losses to the Bills and Jets) outscored the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets (when it counted in the playoffs) 92-74, with a 3-2 record.
- New Orleans beat two hall of fame quarterbacks.
- Indianapolis beat a rookie quarterback and a second-year quarterback who managed offenses and partly lost games because they couldn't produce points.
CORRECTION: The Cardinals also lost to both teams this year. My bad. Doesn't change much, except that Cardinals coach Ken Wisenhunt likes Indy.
d. The mental edge is complicated. When the Colts won it all in 2007, the game was in Miami. Sunday's game is in Miami. Veterans on talk radio love to emphasize comfort with the moment: advantage Colts.
e. However, the short-term memory of media has, simply put, disrespected New Orleans: they've been compared to the 2006 Chicago Bears, the 1994 San Diego Chargers and the hapless Elway Broncos of the '80s that were destroyed in one-sided Super Bowls. Expectations are low, Peyton Manning is the gridiron Stephen Hawking, the best quarterback of all-time, bigger than a ravaged city's dream season, playing to be inducted into the holy order of NFL signal callers. Just like Tom Brady a few seasons ago.
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